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According to the official NSI release dated 24.06.2026, in the 1st quarter of 2026 Bulgaria’s house price index rose 6.2% quarter on quarter and 14.8% year on year. This is an index of price change in registered household transactions — not an average price per m² and not a forecast of further market moves.
City quarterly figures published by NSI: Burgas +5.9%, Sofia +5.8%, Varna +4.0%, Plovdiv +3.9%. Official statistics separate measurable price change from listing prices and from private forecasts.
Price trends by city and property type
| City | Total | New dwellings | Existing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia | 16.0% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
| Plovdiv | 8.8% | 1.9% | 15.2% |
| Varna | 13.2% | 4.5% | 17.0% |
| Burgas | 17.7% | 25.8% | 13.0% |
NSI calculates each city’s overall figure as a standalone index, not a simple average of new and existing segments. A city-wide percentage cannot be applied to a single flat: the index does not state the reason for the change, the stage of a given development, Act 16 status, or unit liquidity.
Market expectations at the start of 2026
In January 2026, BTA reported an analyst’s view of a 5–10% rise nationwide and 8–12% in Sofia. This is an attributed market forecast, not NSI data and not a confirmed official outcome. An annual forecast and a 1st-quarter year-on-year index are not directly comparable: different horizons, methods and measurement objects.
A practical next step is to fix the city and purchase goal, then compare only truly similar units. Used this way, official statistics help you ask better questions without becoming a promise of future growth.
An index rise alone does not make a property a good deal. Before purchase we compare the entry price with comparable units and calculate the resale scenario in advance. If potential liquidity and the numbers do not add up, overall market statistics should not be an argument for the deal.